Jonathan’s Headache   

Published on September 6, 2010 by TheNEWS   ·   1 Comment

His minders give the impression that all is well, that most Nigerian governors are on his  side, but President Goodluck Jonathan knows that the 2011 presidential election will demand  everything he has got

Since his confirmation by the National Assembly as Acting President, Dr. Goodluck Ebele  Jonathan has been suspected of having his eyes on the presidential contest in 2011. This  latent ambition was boosted by the death of President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua on 5 May 2010.

Yet, as at last week, the trained zoologist had not declared his interest, keeping the  public guessing whether he would join the race or ditch the ambition.

Even as the President prevaricates, numerous groups have sprung up in Abuja and other parts  of the country urging him to run. A national daily claimed that there are 729 of such  groups. The groups are made up of old politicians as well as youths and many of them have  been involved in advocacy for the President for at least four months. The Pro-Jonathan  groups have a newspaper called Goodluck News. In its maiden edition, the paper ran a story  saying: ‘God Will Not Forgive Jonathan If He Does Not Contest.’

It is speculated that Jonathan, who is reportedly observing the Muslim fast, will declare  his interest at the end of the holy month of Ramadan. A source told TheNEWS that the  President has been making extensive consultations all over the country and will only  officially declare his interest in the race if he is sure of winning the ticket of the  Peoples Democratic Party, PDP.

One thing is, however, certain: The President’s prevarication is a tonic for other  aspirants. In this tribe is former military dictator, General Ibrahim Babangida, who is  enjoying a lot of media visibility. Some newspapers even appear to have endorsed him with  generous use of positive stories. This is a boon to the ambition of the man whose reputation  remains mutilated by his annulment of the most credible election in the nation’s history and  the political upheaval it generated.

Many northern analysts and strategists see fear of failure in the President’s reluctance to  throw his hat into the ring and have continued to tell Jonathan that the North stays united  on the return of power to the zone. They reckon that Jonathan will lose if he decides to  run. Some Christian clerics suspected to have some sympathy for Babangida have been making  predictions that unprecedented bloodshed will be witnessed in Nigeria should Jonathan go  against the zoning agreement of his party, the PDP, and contests the election.

On 27 August, Primate Theophilus Olabayo, who was once regarded as a credible seer, told  journalists that the country will witness unprecedented crisis in the next few months.

“More crisis is coming. Jonathan has not seen crisis yet. Once the blood-letting begins, it  will lead to even more bloodshed, as it will spread uncontrollably and will end up  jeopardising Nigeria’s democracy… Jonathan must listen to God and rule himself out of the  2011 election now,” he said. Olabayo famously predicted that George Bush (Snr) would win the  1992 American presidential election. Bill Clinton won.

But speaking recently, Senator Abba Aji, Presidential Adviser on Legislative Matters,  affirmed that Jonathan will declare his interest in the presidency after the Ramadan fast,  assuring that the President will not be intimidated to drop his ambition. He claimed that at  least 20 governors are with the President and at the appropriate time, the governors will  work for Jonathan’s victory.

However, political analysts warn that Jonathan’s heavy reliance on governors to realise his  ambition might backfire. Presidency sources say the president is frustrated about the double  game that some of the governors are playing. While they pledge loyalty to him, some of them  are actually supporters of Babangida.

Last week, THE NATION reported that the Jonathan team raised a five-man committee to  generate ideas on how to check governors suspected of harbouring anti-Jonathan sentiments.  One of the ideas the committee hit on is to get the presidential primaries of the party held  first, which could force the governors to support Jonathan out of fear that they could be  victimised by Jonathan’s men in the aftermath of the PDP convention.

Jonathan is displeased because in spite of his efforts, some of the governors from his party  are reluctant to back him. Among the governors suspected to be opposed to him are Governors  Danjuma Goje of Gombe State, Mahmud Shinkafi of Zamfara State, Bukola Saraki of Kwara State,  Timipre Sylva of Bayelsa State, Emmanuel Uduaghan of Delta State, Governor Aliyu Wamakko of  Sokoto State, Chibuike Amaechi of Rivers State and Gbenga Daniel of Ogun State.

For most governors from the core North, even while they may want to back Jonathan as a means  of self-preservation they are worried that they may be voted out if they campaign for him.

“In the North, the dominant feeling is that of betrayal. There was an agreement on zoning  which some people now pretend was never reached. This is an emotive issue. Nobody can  predict what will happen. A lot of sentiments are involved. The governors are scared. The  average northerner is enlightened and current politically and may not listen to any governor  who tells him to vote for Jonathan,” Malam Shehn Saleh, an Abuja-based political analyst  told TheNEWS late last week.

Indeed, an aide of the President confided in this magazine that Governor Aliyu Magatakarda  Wamakko has told his fellow governors that he does not know how he as governor of Sokoto  State, home of the Caliphate, can publicly campaign for Jonathan without risking a huge  backlash. This is the reason many northern governors are reluctant to commit themselves to  the president. Indeed, during his interaction with media chiefs recently, General Ibrahim  Babangida claimed that the North will stand firm against Jonathan’s candidature. He boasted  that he had a meeting with PDP members in the National Assembly and said it was agreed that  any governor who worked for Jonathan should be voted out.

Some of the PDP governors opposed to Jonathan’s ambition harbour presidential ambitions of  their own. Among such governors are Bukola Saraki and Danjuma Goje of Kwara and Gombe states  respectively. On Tuesday last week, the Northern Union met in Abuja and resolved that it  would support either Babangida or Bukola Saraki. The group which is led by the father of the  Kwara governor, while advising Jonathan to forget his ambition resolved to encourage  Governor Goje to continue to pursue his presidential ambition.

A few of the governors have personal issues with the President. There are some of them who  are still saddened that Jonathan snubbed them and chose the then Kaduna  State governor,  Mohammed Namadi Sambo, as his deputy. One of them is reported to have spent N1 billion  lobbying for the VP job and even gave the Emir of Kano N10m to help talk to the president  and all those who matter. However, the self-respecting monarch rejected the gift.

Even in the South-South, Jonathan’s home turf, things are not rosy for the president. It  will be hard for Governor Uduaghan to campaign for Jonathan, as it would amount to  committing political suicide given the fact that his cousin, James Ibori, sees Jonathan as  an enemy.

The President claimed in a recent interview that he has no problem with Uduaghan, but that  is easier said. With Babangida promising the likes of Gbenga Daniel the running mate slot,  it would be difficult for some of the governors to fully commit to Jonathan. Like a  commentator said last week, Jonathan’s best bet is to work on governors from the South-West,  Middle Belt, South-East and South-South as he will not get genuine backing from governors  from the core North. The same applies to the South-East, where Babangida has turned a few  heads with his promise to spend just one term, after which power will return to the South  and specifically, the South-East. Governors in the zone are likely to salivate over the  prospect of the presidency coming to the South-East, something their people have struggled  unavailingly for.

Another analyst posited that since many of the governors are unpopular on account of their  avaricious fancies, Jonathan will do himself a world of good by campaigning directly to  Nigerians rather than rely heavily on governors.

But the President is not giving up on the North. The choice of Ambassador Dalhatu Sarki  Tafida to head his campaign illustrates his bold intentions. Tafida is an experienced  politician and one with a rich conservative background. On  29 August, Tafida visited Sambo  to discuss strategies to for the election. Like the Vice President, Tafida is confident that  Jonathan will win.

An aide of Vice President Sambo expressed confidence that Jonathan will win the 2011  presidential contest, boasting that Babangida is a paper tiger that would be disgraced at  the appropriate time. He said many key northerners are supporting Jonathan, but are not yet  making a public show of it.

“We agreed that this is not the right time for them to declare their support for the  president. You saw how the Wakilin Adamawa (Ambassador Hassan Adamu) led a group of  northerners who pledged support for the President’s ambition. There are other people like  that. At the right time, they will stand up and be counted on the president’s side,” he  assured.

On 28 August in Ibadan, after a three-hour meeting, the PDP South-West zone endorsed  Jonathan for the presidential race.

Chief Olusegun Obasanjo, Chairman of the PDP Board of Trustees, said the decision was taken  in the best interest of the zone and Nigeria. He urged the Yoruba nation to support their  leaders in the direction provided as regards the 2011 election.

Chairman, Senate Committee on Appropriation, Iyiola Omisore, explained that the chances of  the aspirants were examined before settling for Jonathan.  “We believe that the best  president we can have is Jonathan. Democracy is about conspiracy to get power. In the South  West, we have our own problems and we believe Jonathan can solve our problems for us.  Immediately after the exit of Obasanjo, Yar’Adua abandoned many federal projects in the  South -West. We believe that with Jonathan, all the projects will be revisited and executed.  Jonathan will meet our needs and whoever meets the needs of other zones, let them go for him  or her,” he said.

A Lagos State PDP chieftain, Chief Lanre Rasaq, revealed that factors considered before  Jonthan was endorsed were the nation’s unity, continuity, and ability of government to  continue without rocking the boat. He added that it was necessary for Jonathan to continue  with the Yar’Adua/Jonathan ticket.

“The highest organ of the party has taken a decision. They recognised zoning. They also  recognise the need to continue the Yar’Adua/Jonathan ticket and it will be wrong for the  South West to contradict or go against what the national body of the party has said.  Besides, we saw wisdom in their decision and that is why we keyed into it,” Razaq said.

He reasoned that it would be suicidal for the nation to deny the people of the South-South  geo-political zone presidency after 50 years. He added that the choice of IBB could be  catastrophic.

In his welcome address, Oyo State governor, Adebayo Alao-Akala, stated that the decision to  support Jonathan was informed by the determination to ensure that the nation waxes stronger  as well as guarantee a sustainable harmony which would form the bedrock of economic recovery  of the nation.

According to him, it is the responsibility of leaders to continue to partner with other  stakeholders in the country to set necessary machinery in motion that would allow the  economy to grow, give rise to prompt recognition and acknowledgement of victorious  candidates in any political contest by opponents as well as striving to stamp out fraudulent  practices during elections.  “Although, we have not been able to heal all the wounds of this  nation, it is to our eternal credit and glory that we have succeeded in keeping the nation  together as one single bloc in spite of innumerable attempts to the contrary. We must  remember always that we will be judged individually for all our actions in and out of  office,” he said.

Speaking on behalf of the Niger Delta and the North, the President of Ijaw National  Congress, IJC, Dr. Atuboyedia Wolfe Obianime, and a former minister, Bala Audu, lauded the  people of the South West for giving the nation a direction that would take it out of the  doldrums.

While Obianime promised that the people of Niger Delta will ensure that Jonathan did not  disappoint the nation, Audu noted that the people of the South West have demonstrated that  they understand the rudiments of the nation’s politics. He urged other zones to follow the  example of the South West.

The endorsement by the PDP in the South-West is boost for Jonathan, but he is well aware  that what lies ahead is a stiff contest and not a procession. Infact, as a PDP topshot  opined last week, “Jonathan will get the PDP ticket, but the real battle begins after he has  won it. I bet his “enemies” within his party, which is sharply divided over zoning, won’t  show their cards now. You will see their real intentions once Jonathan picks the party’s  ticket”. Will Jonathan stay the course?

—Babajide Kolade-Otitoju

Tags:  Goodluck News, National Assembly, President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua