Paul, the enigmatic psychic octopus ends the World Cup held in South Africa with an inexplicable unblemished record

Spain may have won the 2010 World Cup in South Africa. Yet it did not have a 100 per cent triumph record, having lost its first group match to Switzerland. The only untainted performance as far as the event is concerned belongs to Paul, a bizzare creature largely unheralded when the competition kicked off on 11 June, but had become the star suspense by the eve of the final a month later. On Saturday 10 July, the world’s focus was on who Paul would pick as the likely victor of the final between Spain and Holland the next day.

Paul’s play was all about prediction. And, in an uncanny development that is sure to set scientists on a new wave of research on cephalopods (a class of marine mollusks), Paul’s predictions were a mystery. Eight out of eight times, he got it right. Paul is a cephalopod, a mere octopus hatched from an egg at the Sea Life Centre in Weymouth, England, then moved to a tank at one of the chain’s centres in Oberhausen, Germany where he has become popular. An Italian version claims he was caught in the sea off the Italian Island of Elba, near Tuscany. Whichever, no one has debated that the octopus was named from Der Tintenfisch Paul Oktopusafter, the title of a poem by German children’s writer, Boy Lornsen.

Paul’s career as an oracle began during the UEFA Euro 2008 tournament. For every match he was called upon to predict, Paul was presented with two clear plastic boxes, each containing food: a mussel or an oyster. The boxes were draped with flags of two teams. Whichever box he opened first and ate its content was predicted winner of the game.

In 2008, Paul correctly predicted the outcome of four out of six matches. He was wrong on the final match, tipping Germany to pip Spain. The latter won 1-0. As far as the 2010 World Cup is concerned, he was stunningly right all through, including predicting that  Spain will beat Germany in the semi-final and conquer Holland in the final to lift the cup.

Paul’s astonishing success is not unlikely to keep scientists busy in the days to come to determine whether his predictions were a fortuitous run of luck, or the creature is imbued with an extra-sensory perception that scientists had failed to discover earlier in their studies. Already, scientists have begun postulating theories and hypotheses on Paul’s predictions. Lost on tying it to scientific mysticism, professors Chris Budd of the University of Bath, UK; David Spiegelhalter of Cambridge University, UK and Etienne Roquain of Pierre and Marie University, Paris compared it to a run of luck that could as well happen in tossing a coin. Spiegelhalter and Roquain noted that although other animals had equally been applied to predict outcome of matches but failed, they did not see anything remarkable in Paul’s unique achievement. Other animals that have been used in this regard, but were failures, included Rani the Parakeet, a parrot used in Singapore; Leon the Porcupine and Petty the Pigmy Hippotamus in Germany; and Anton the Tamarin, a South American monkey. Roquain, however, admitted that sheer chance would not explain Paul’s extraordinary choices. The octopus, the scientist believed, could have been choosing boxes systematically, if not on the basis of football expertise, then on his attraction to countries’ flags or the food items in the boxes.

The flag theory is explained in many dimensions. An octopus is colour blind and neither behavioural studies nor electroretinogram experiments have shown it discriminating a colour’s hue. Nonetheless, individual octopuses can distinguish brightness as well as an object’s size, shape and orientation. Shelagh Malham of Bangor University observed that the creature is drawn to horizontal shapes and this could explain the fact that there are horizontal stripes on the flags Paul chose. The flag of Germany, a bold tricolour consisting of three equal horizontal bands of black, red and gold was always believed to be Paul’s usual favourite. But the octopus ignored it to predict Serbia and Spain as winners when Germany played against the two countries. Despite this,  scientists remain unconvinced Paul is gifted with extra-sensory intelligence. Some argued that the flags of Spain, with its broad yellow stripe and Serbia, with its contrast of blue and white are also vividly as pronounced as Germany’s, if not more, which could possibly explain why Paul picked those countries over Germany. Daniel Fey, a supervisor at the Sea Life Acquarium, believed, ahead of the semi-final tie between Spain and Germany, that the similarity in the flags of the two countries confounded Paul on 6 July to pick Spain to thrash Germany and was hopeful the octopus’ latest pick would be wrong. Fey was wrong; it was Paul, again, who hit the bull’s eye. It ended Spain 1, Germany 0.

Some scientists, unable to place a finger on any other proven fact, would still rather stick to the flag theory. Matthew Fuller, the senior aquarist at the Weymouth Park, thought it plausible: “Octopuses are the most intelligent of all the invertebrates and studies have shown they are able to distinguish shapes and patterns so maybe he’s able to recognise flags,” he explained. Vyacheslav Bisikov, a Russian biologist, agreed. But Pascal Coutant, director of the La Rochelle Aquarium, disagreeing, quipped: “It’s complete chance that guides his choices.”

Some are alleging the positioning of the boxes and deliberate manipulation of light intensity possibly influenced Paul’s decisions. On six out of seven predictions in South Africa (no information about Germany-Australia), the octopus chose the right-hand box (from the camera point of view), the English flag being the exception. On four out of six predictions, the German flag was also placed on the right-hand box, the exceptions being matches with England and Spain. Thus choosing which flag would be placed on the right-hand box may have influenced his predictions, some analysts maintained. But they would not explain why Paul chose to veer left, if he was so inclined to the right, to pick the winner correctly in Germany’s match against England.

Unfortunately, cynics won’t have another opportunity to prove Paul’s accurate predictions were a happenstance. The Oberhausen Sea Life Centre has calculated that the two-year-old octopus is expected to live until the age of three and has announced his retirement immediately after the World Cup. There will be no more football prediction from him. Rather, as disclosed by the spokeswoman for the Centre, Tanja Munzig, Paul will be going back to doing what he likes doing best – play with his handlers and delight visiting children to the aquarium. “He is retiring and says thank you to the whole world. It was a great World Cup,” Munzig enthused.

More importantly, she has declared Paul is absolutely not for sale. The declaration became necessary in the wake of a request by some Spanish businessmen who offered 38,000 euros ($66,150) to bring him to Spain, following their country’s World Cup success. The businessmen are splashing the money on their bid to bring the octopus to Spain, rename him Paulo and use him as a major mascot at major food events. A string of bookmakers from around the world has also expressed interest in the intuitive invertebrate, as they believe his psychic abilities will be of help to betters. Marketing experts have also predicted that he could become a big hit with advertisers.

As it is, all these requests will remain dreams. As a jelly crystal ball, it is sure curtains on Paul.

—Seun Bisuga